LogoTechnology Management Associates, Inc., Serving Business Needs in the Global Marketplace

TECHMANAGE.COM
July 1998, Volume 2, Issue 4

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A free periodic e-mail newsletter
Joanne F. Gucwa MM CMC, Editor, jogucwa@techmanage.com
Technology Management Associates, Inc.,
http://techmanage.com
Global cooperation and friendship

Welcome to the July, 1998 edition of TECHMANAGE.COM, our periodic free e-mail newsletter now in its second year.

July marks our 25th year providing research and consulting serves to clients around the world. Since July 1973 we've been extraordinarily blessed with exciting and challenging assignments from clients who are equally exciting and challenging. It is our fervent hope to continue for at least another 25 years exploring (and frequently APPLYING) leading edge technologies and assessing the future for our current client friends and to serve new friends too!

In celebration of our anniversary, we're starting a quiz with this issue, with prizes awarded to those replying by e- mail with answers closest to the authorities the information is gathered from. See "Quiz" below for details.

If you've received this as a forward from someone who thought you'd enjoy it, we encourage you to join the hundreds of subscribers from more than 20 countries, representing numerous industries, governmental agencies, associations, academic institutions and research labs. You will find "How to" information at the end of this

newsletter. In this issue:

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BIOGRAPHY NOW ONLINE

For all two of you (actually, there were a few more than that) who have asked and suggested, I've posted an account of my professional meanderings at

http://www.techmanage.com/about-us/biography.htm

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7 KEYS TO PRACTICAL INFORMATION ANALYSIS

Last issue we promised to explore getting from information to understanding. Analysis is the second step in that process, i.e. answering the question: What do we do with all that data we've collected?. This issue we explore seven analytical processes that shed light on the meaning behind the data.

In addition to sections on Background and Methodology, you've probably seen research reports with sections on:

  • Findings
  • Conclusions
  • Recommendations

What are these "Findings"? Raw data? "Refined" data? A summary of various statistical manipulations or database queries? An interpretive narrative?

Usually, all of the above...and then some.

There are numerous ways to take data apart, some useful, some not. If you recall from the last issue, we said that "information by itself isn't worth very much. It's what you DO with it that counts."

What do YOU intend to do with the information?

Academic interest aside, the objective of most commercial research is to uncover ways of improving a situation. So, your analysis should focus on the IMPLICATION of your research, or what I call the "so what?" factor.

That "so what?" will drive the kinds and depth of analytical hoops you want to make the data jump through: to FIND relevant information AND derive valid CONCLUSIONS (understanding the information) which enable you to make good decisions ("Recommendations")...at a reasonable cost and a quick enough pace to stay ahead of the game.

The "7 Keys" that follow are common analytical processes, accompanied by cautions about equally common pitfalls. This is hardly an exhaustive coverage of moving from information to understanding; rather, it represents basic techniques that most organizations use, and sometimes misunderstand. Keys 1 and 2 are fairly lengthy and detailed, but take heart. Keys 3-7 are mercifully brief. ;-)

1. Slicing and dicing (part one)
     Characterizing an elephant from its truck alone

Beware the trap of micro-segmentation and generalizing to the whole marketplace or a particular niche from too small a sample size. (This is NOT the same as gathering information from individual customers for the purpose of one-to-one marketing!)

Let me give you an example.

Several years ago a fellow consultant asked me to assist on a customer satisfaction assignment for an industrial client. The company had three types of commercial customer, sold multiple varieties and sizes of product through a network of reps with established geographic territories across the U.S.

Due to budgetary constraints, the survey was limited to 150 telephone contacts of current and former customers, and included both quantitative (numerical or "choice" answers) and qualitative (open-ended, such as "how can we better meet your needs?"). Altogether there were nearly 130 data points (each open-ended question counted as a single data point) for each survey questionnaire.

We did get some fine information and were able to develop a set of recommendations for change in some of the client's rep compensation policies and a few product improvement suggestions. But, when it came to understanding how to better serve each of the three types of commercial customer, the results were "iffy" at best. Here's why.

First, the 150 contacts were divided among eight geographic territories, each served by a different sales rep, so each territory had approximately 20 companies surveyed. Now most of these territories had all three types of customer industries, so about 7 companies of each type were surveyed per territory...and some were current, some were former customers.

Of course, not all of these customers bought all of the client's products in question (9 in all, not counting size...from individual units to cases to pallet loads). Further, climate influenced how the products were used. Ultimately, most of the product type/customer type combinations were represented by fewer than five respondents. And this did not account for the differences in sales rep capability and territory composition (other issues entirely!). Hardly a case for imputing statistical significance, although we most assuredly derived valuable one-to-one information for the client.

The lesson here is, don't segment your respondent groups too finely if you're wanting to generalize to your overall market because you're likely to place undue reliance on far too few observations.

2. Slicing and dicing (part two)
     Settling for gristle and missing the meat

You've no doubt noticed how most surveys are of the multiple-choice variety. The few surveys we've seen (other than our own) that venture using open-ended questions usually relegate a single question to the end, one that reads something like: "if there were one thing you could have different, what might that be?" This is fine and good, but most often wind up not being answered at all or, if answered, repeat one of the multiple-choice themes.

As we noted in Key 6 (Building your own information) of "10 Keys to Collecting Information" in the previous issue, a more effective way to elicit NEW information is to intersperse open-ended, "discussion" questions among the "choice" variety.

This, however, usually strikes real terror into the hearts of data analysts. "You can't sort memo fields," they will tell you. "You can't quantify narrative," they moan.

This is true.

However, with a bit of skill and a bit more of work, you CAN extract the treasures of information hidden among all the rambling words of your respondents. Let me tell you how we do this.

We import the questionnaire replies, memo (narrative) fields included, into a relational database such as Paradox or Access.(We'll cover questionnaire design issues, such as question sequencing and avoiding leading questions in another issue). Sorting and querying of the multiple-choice questions is done in the normal fashion to obtain demographic information, seek out relationship patterns, get a statistical profile of the responses.

Working with narrative responses is certainly less routine than working with numerical or standard text selections. We begin by identifying and listing what we call "key phrases" contained in the narrative fields, often placing them in lookup tables.

This is NOT a job for a data entry clerk, especially one who does not know your business. You need to exercise a level of judgment in assigning key phrases to rambling bunches of words. Surveys will typically generate in the vicinity of 15-20 key phrases per question. Key phrases will often overlap in questions that are related.

Tech note: It's important to set up "one-to- many" relationships between each new "key phrase" table and your new reference table derived from the original narrative responses. You need to be able to capture multiple key phrases that will be present in many open-ended responses.

Transfer these key phrases to new forms which will be used to generate reports of the key phrases used.

A cautionary note: We've observed that many comments made in response to open-ended questions are more appropriate to a different question than the one asked. For example, you may have asked "how can we improve?" and part of the response will refer to competitor strengths, another question you probably asked elsewhere.

You DID, didn't you? ;-)

For purposes of really understanding what your respondents are telling you and HOW MANY are telling you something, it's best to place each key phrase in its proper question category.

Once you've got the key phrases identified, you will see general categories emerging. These may be issues such as quality problems, confusion over pricing, inadequate customer service or even your entire value proposition. Some of these will be critical success factors, some of less importance. By assigning the key phrases to the general categories, you will be able to quantify your market's perception of your performance far more reliably than depending entirely on "choose one" types of questions, where human nature often gets in the way and people tend to respond without thinking very much or not wanting to give you a "low score" on a troublesome issue.

It is the set of Conclusions based on these and traditional quantitative Findings that set part of the stage for the Recommendations. Other Findings (briefly covered below in keys 3 and 4) set more of the stage.

Hard work? Yes, especially the first time around. But think of it as creating the information infrastructure which will support the tough management and leadership decisions you will need to make to meet the demands of the future... faster, cheaper, and better.

3. Slicing and dicing (part three)
     Relating the unrelated

Studies of grocery shopping habits have shown that there's a higher-than-expected correlation between beer and diaper purchases. How so? Young families have not yet reached a "champagne" budget. In looking for relationships, slice and dice away and out of the confining boxes of beer/chips or diaper/baby food combinations.

4. Watch what they do, depend less on what they say
     Then decide how you need to change

No matter what people say, their actions shout far louder than words. Does your survey indicate that they visit the library and church weekly but eat fast food only once a month? Check the "hard" evidence of cash register and other tallies against the local demographics and run some averages.

A good article, called "The New Market Research" appears in the July issue of Inc. Magazine, available on-line at:

http://www.inc.com/incmagazine/archives/07980861.html

5. Perception may be reality to the perceiver...
     ...but not necessarily reality to the researcher

Ask people how many seconds they've waited for an elevator or in the checkout lane. More than 90% of the time their "inner clock" senses a lot more elapsed time than the watch on their wrist. So, when you're making improvements, making a psychological "fix" may be cheaper, faster, better than a mechanical (or technological) one.

6. Inevitability, universal truths, and common sense

Don't forget to take into account what I call inevitabilities. Demographic reality is one: for example, the aging population in developed countries. What implications does this "reality" have for healthcare, housing and transportation services and products?

Then there are universal truths. You know: the poor will always be among us; it will always be "the best of times, the worst of times"; and there will always be exciting new things to learn and mysteries to unravel. What needs will always have to be addressed?

Finally, common sense (or lack of it). For example: fiscal foolishness, such as bank lending practices or stock prices that ignore the laws of gravity: what goes up too fast must eventually come down to a rational level.

Consumer purchases just cannot be legislated or mandated, e.g. the resounding silence of the population expected to purchase electric vehicles when the technology is still at the stage that requires 8 hours for recharging, go all of 80 miles between charges, and cost $10 thousand more than conventional cars.

How many of you routinely buy recycled paper products for personal or business use (generally costing about 10% more than those made with virgin materials - until critical mass is achieved)?

Are your product or service offers at risk? Are there opportunities for you that others are missing?

7. Getting understanding is the journey, not the destination

Curiosity didn't kill the cat. Complacency did. Data collection and analysis should be on-going and a lot of it can be done in "near-real" time. You don't need to have terabyte size data volumes. Small organizations can adopt many of the large-scale data warehousing and data mining models for PC-based systems.

Next issue we'll discuss "A picture is worth a thousand words" ... tools for helping others (and yourself) understand the meaning behind the words and numbers.

So far we've been exploring external, i.e. customer or market data. We'll address acquiring and monitoring internal data in early fall.


Information gathering and its transformation into business intelligence is a vital component of success in the marketplace. In today's climate of lean, downsized organizations, there are frequently too few internal resources available to do what it takes to truly understand what's happening with your customers, prospects, competition, suppliers and advances in technology. If you're looking for an external partner to assist you in these areas, to help you attain the goals you've set for your organization, we'd be pleased to hear from you.

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Fast Company; the Future of Business

This space is usually reserved for reviews of books - you know, those hard or soft-cover things, usually written by a single author, and that frequently take more than a year to write and publish. This issue, however, I'm making an exception...for an exceptional publication I discovered at a magazine stand at O'Hare airport, looking for some reading amusement to while away at least a small portion of the 14- hr. flight that lay ahead.

Certainly not as popular as THE magazine for entrepreneurs, INC. magazine...yet...two-year-old Fast Company is a periodical with an attitude.

Iconoclastic? Yes! With it? Yes! Readable? Yes! No in-group jargon here. And the "letters to the editor" (e-mailed, usually) often contribute real value follow-up to past articles.

Each issue includes articles on nine core themes, such as:

  • Big Idea ("Gutsy articles from experts and executives who shape what business people discuss, shake their thoughts, change their actions"),
  • Benchmarks ("Photo essays that demystify the companies with the best people, the most efficient systems, the strongest culture."), and
  • Unit of One ("It's a "unit-of-one" world. We've gone from an old economy where business revolves around the organization - to a new economy where the organization revolves around the individual - you.")
The Web site has full archives of past issues and a whole lot more. Their very active WebBoard covers far-ranging topics, from reengineering to road warriors, from gender and sex to giving back.

The daily updated "Random Factoid (and related story)" article is guaranteed to make you stop and think or, at the very least, give a nod of recognition to a typical absurdity of business today.

Find it all at:

http://www.fastcompany.com/home.html

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Global and Local Meetings of Interest

It was my good fortune to hear "Japan Struggles to Stay Stagnant", an address given by Dr. Robert Alan Feldman, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's chief economist for Japan at the Hotel Okura in Tokyo this May. These outstanding Executive Luncheon briefings are held monthly from 12 noon - 2 p.m. at the hotel. I met some fascinating people and made valuable contacts over lunch. Here is an abbreviated schedule of future meetings:

JULY Tuesday, July 21,1998

Prof.Han Sung-Joo
Former Foreign Affairs Minister
Current Director, Ilmin International Relations Institute Korea University
Title: "Inter-Korea and the Major Powers"

OCT. October 14, 1998

Mr. Bill Emmott
Editor, The Economist Magazine

NOV. November 4, 1998

Mrs. Harriett Mayor Fulbright,
Wife of the late Sen. J.W. Fulbright
Executive Director, The Fulbright Foundation
For more information, you may contact Anita Agee, Guest Relations Director at:

staff@okura-gm.attnet.ne.jp

The hotel's Web site is:

http://www.travelweb.com/okura/tokyol


The Illinois Technology Transfer Alliance is featuring Len Batterson, Chairman and CEO of Batterson Venture Partners, LLC, at the July 17 luncheon meeting in downtown Chicago. Mr. Batterson's topic is "What Investors Are Looking For In New Ventures." Contact me for more information at:

jogucwa@techmanage.com


The Technology Transfer Society Summit "Competing & Cooperating for Stakeholder Value" in conjunction with the Northwestern Summer Biotech Institute and the regional meeting of the Federal Laboratory Consortium is running July 26-29 in downtown Chicago. For more information, contact:

Bbecker@Bostrom.com

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Quiz

Stephanie, our Jill of All Things Organized, suggested we inaugurate our second quarter-century in business by starting a pop quiz feature of this periodical, complete with prizes. Great idea, don't you think?

Here's how we'll do it for this issue. Copy and paste the following multi-part question into a new e-mail message, fill in the blanks and e-mail it to me at:

jogucwa@techmanage.com

The first correct reply (or the closest correct answers received by 5 pm Chicago time July 31) gets an e-mailed copy of our latest update of Web research resources (more than 100 in all). Accuracy will be determined by the figures published in a respected trade periodical, published both in pulp and on the Web. Decision of the editor (me!) is final. So, on to the pop quiz.

WHAT WAS THE TOTAL ROBOTICS MARKET IN NORTH AMERICA IN 1997?

Key in your answer here: - -> $

WHAT WAS THE BREAKDOWN BY THE FOLLOWING SEGMENTS? (You may answer by either % or dollar amount).

AEROSPACE: - ->

APPLIANCE: - ->

AUTOMOTIVE: - ->

ELECTRONICS: - ->

FOOD AND BEVERAGE: - ->

MACHINERY: - ->

OTHER: - ->

Results will be published in a future edition of TECHMANAGE.COM

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I hope you found something of value here that you can put to use directly or that might have stimulated some new ideas. Our Web site's always open, the fax machine (and coffee) is always on, and we check our e-mail frequently, even when we're overseas. Of course your phone calls, snail mail and visits are welcome as well. We'd be delighted to hear from you...anytime.

Technology Management Associates, Inc.
(312) 984-5050jogucwa@techmanage.com

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